(June 2006 MedMarket Outlook in MedMarkets)
Megatrends in Medical Technology
Aside from other trends in the medical product industry we’ve addressed previously in MedMarket Outlook, such as the dissolution of boundaries between device and pharmaceutical technologies, the increasing integration of information and information technologies with medtech, and the rise of “holistic research” (aka “systems biology”) that recognizes the value of studying pathology with a multidisciplinary scientific approach, there are specific overarching trends and forces that are changing medical technology and the markets for them on a grand scale.
Stem Cell Research
The debate about stem cell research was no more likely to end as a result of President Bush’s restriction on federal funding as it was that the established cell lines would be sufficient or appropriate for research (they weren’t) or that the case would abate (as they have not) for the use of stem cells in the treatment of diabetes, Parkinson’s, spinal cord injury or other disease and disorders. Here, we make no ethical case for or against embryonic or somatic stem cell research — the debate is likely to become wholly moot in a matter of time — we only comment on the inevitability of the science moving forward one way or another. In June, Harvard University’s Harvard Stem Cell Institute confirmed that two projects focused on cloning to produce embryonic stem cells will move forward under private funding. The projects employ the same general type of research, somatic cell nuclear transfer, that is underway at the University of California at San Francisco and at the University of Connecticut’s Center for Regenerative Biology. Aside from these approaches, a cursory review of the state of cell research in general and stem cell research in particular will reveal that researchers have both the innovation and the willingness to pursue cell therapeutics that lead to treatments heretofore not possible. It seems fairly certain that, looking back at progress in the development of the range of cell therapies, the Bush administration’s federal funding restriction will be seen to have produced a momentary hitch rather than the obstacle it was originally portrayed as producing.
Nano- and Microscale Juggernaut Forces
There are as many different functions — maybe even more — being provided by technologies designed around nanoscale or microscale level as there are different types of these technologies. The sole criteria for technologies grouped into the nano and micro categories is size. Aside from their size, there is then little common among these technologies, which represent an incredible array of devices, molecules, materials and other products that achieve functions not possible on the macro scale, even if one only considers nano- and microscale medical applications. These range from products that are largely nanoscale materials (e.g., silver nanoparticles as antimicrobials in wound management) to those providing functions such as artificial retinas, cancer diagnostics, drug delivery and biosensors. As an industry, nanotechnology (more so than MEMS, which has found considerable realized success) has been plagued by a combination of inflated promise and underestimated technical hurdles, but while MEMS (microelectromechanical systems) has found bigger initial commercial success, nanotechnology has begun scoring commercial success that will ultimately result in markets that will eclipse MEMS products by orders of magnitude.
Open Surgery in Decline, or the Rise of the Minimally Invasive, Less Invasive, Interventional, Percutaneous and Other Alternatives to Surgery
Often stated, but never emphasized enough, is the compelling drive for treatments (that were all too recently delivered exclusively via surgery) to be associated with, or replaced by, ever-decreasing invasiveness. Device manufacturers have well established records for producing devices that not only minimize the trauma of surgery (e.g., laparoscopy) but also promise to make open surgery obsolete (e.g., percutaneous procedures like coronary anastomosis). Driving this trend is the persistent recognition that “collateral damage” in achieving clinical outcomes is unacceptable, whether from the perspective of the physician seeking to optimize results, the healthcare system seeking to minimize the costs of healthcare (or optimize revenue streams by being able to market the latest less-invasive techniques) or the patient seeking to minimize the impact of surgery on his/her busy lifestyle.
Disease State-Centered Marketplaces
Certain technologies in certain clinical areas remain the predominant if not exclusive option for treatment in those areas. However, in 2006, any legitimate competitive analysis of a market considers a multitude of different technology types. Case in point: any treatment for coronary artery disease will of necessity consider the competitive threat of bare versus eluting stents, angioplasty, atherectomy (waning but not gone), products for identification/treatment of vulnerable plaque, traditional coronary artery bypass, MIDCAB, OPCAB and other bypass variants (e.g. robotics), percutaneous bypass, atherosclerosis-reversing drugs and others. Compelling arguments must be created through the intrinsic advantages of new technologies in order to secure sought-after shelf space in the cost-fixated healthcare system armamentarium.
Materials Science Creating/Upending Markets
Underlying a stunning number of new technologies, from biodegradable/resobable stents, cellular scaffolds and a wide arrange of other implant types are the advances in materials sciences that are leading to the ability to engineer implants that now go well beyond providing solely structural roles. Driving these advances are the needs to improve upon the function of implants as static, inert devices that do not fully reflect the in situ need upon implantation, fail to adapt to changing conditions or otherwise do not provide the functions that optimize the end results of the implants’ use. Whether by impregnation with different substances or by the nature of the implant material employed, implants have improved considerably in being able to not induce an anti-inflammatory response, to provide anti-microbial function to the device, to minimize formation of blood clots and to avoid the effects like restenosis of vasculature following interventional procedures. With the need for implants frequently changing at some point after their implantation, more devices — biodegradable/bioresorbable stents, matrices/scaffolds for tissue engineering and others — are being developed that are either resorbed completely by the body or just enough to be expelled in whole or in part once their purposes have been served. Lastly, materials science and implant engineering in general have also been able to simply produce implants that are more easily deployed through tortuous twists in vessels or through narrow channels in endoscopic devices. Expectations are that more complex functions will be served by implants as a result of these trends and forces in development, from the increasing sophistication of drug delivery in various passive and active forms, to the ability of implants to respond via biofeedback to changing conditions in situ, and to providing increasingly sensor-like functions. Increasing demands are being made of the medical product marketplace — cost, competitive technologies, financial performance of public companies, etc. — but it seems clear that these demands are driving the proliferation of technologies that indeed satisfy them, sometimes with each advance creating ever greater demand in an endless progression. It also seems apparent that this “technology burst” is taking place simultaneously with the increasingly strident need for healthcare costs to get under control. The focus in the U.S. Congress on the need for Medicare reform, and reform in the U.S. healthcare system overall (up to an including the increasing drive toward universal healthcare), is gaining greater intensity and may well yield more than nominal changes to the system. The medical product industry is likely to both respond to these changes and facilitate solutions that we can scarcely imagine even now.